A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
